by CEI Staff
February 1, 2008

Nine out of 10 Americans don’t know anything about U.S. global climate policy, according to a poll released in June 1997 by the Small Business Survival Committee. Yet, just a few months from now in Kyoto, Japan, U.S. negotiators may commit the American people to a climate change treaty that will require massive restrictions on energy use. Something is wrong here.

If we were at war — if we faced a physical threat to the U.S. — Americans at home would be asked to sacrifice, and we would willingly do so accepting gas rationing, canned food instead of fresh, and products in short supply. If we were facing an energy crisis as we did in the 1970s, people would willingly cut back on driving, car-pool, turn down their thermostats, and wait — sometimes impatiently — in long lines at gas stations. But something’s different with global climate change. The stakes are just as high, but the American public does not know what is going on and how this issue will affect them.

No Need for Hasty Action

Public debates on global warming policy often focus on the science of climate change. Yet whether warming is occurring is still in question; and, if global warming is occurring, the extent of mankind’s influence has not yet been clearly established. According to ground-level measurements, the earth’s temperature has warmed 0.5 degrees Celsius over the past century, and computer models predict an increase of nearly two degrees Celsius over the next 100 years. However, satellite data measuring the earth’s temperature show no temperature increase over the past 18 years; instead, they show a slight cooling trend. Also, as the computer models are adjusted and new data are incorporated, the predicted temperature rise has gotten smaller and smaller — from about five degrees Celsius over the next century to the current prediction of less than two degrees.1 

Yet even with this high level of scientific uncertainty, policymakers are rushing to treat global climate change as an imminent threat. They use the mantra of the "precautionary principle," that is, if the possibility exists that global warming is occurring due to human activities, we need to take immediate action.

Opponents of precipitous action argue that given the scientific uncertainty whether global climate change is occurring, policymakers should not take drastic steps into the next century to restrict greenhouse gas emissions. They point to macro-economic models that show devastating effects on U.S. industries and resultant widespread unemployment as companies shift their production to developing countries not subject to treaty restrictions. Some critics of rigid emissions cutbacks note that such restrictions would hobble industry’s ability to adapt and find technological solutions if the science becomes more certain that the climate is being affected by man’s activities.

The Consumer Impact

Missing from the debate is how consumers will be affected by global climate change policies. The American public deserves to know what the global climate policy proposals are and what they will mean for them. The aim of this paper is to show how global climate policies’ effects on consumers will be real, substantial, and painful, and to illustrate the impact these proposals will have on their daily lives (see Exhibit 1, which shows typical energy consumption in daily routines).

Consider some of the proposals that are on the table. Some proposals for binding targets and timetables would sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 15 to 20 percent below 1990 levels over time periods as short as 12 years. By the year 2000, the U.S. Department of Energy forecasts that U.S. carbon emissions will be 12.5 percent above 1990 levels. Thus, a 15 percent reduction in CO2 from 1990 levels by 2010 — the proposal being pushed by the European Union — would actually mean a 24.4 percent reduction in a single decade.

These massive changes can’t be achieved through minor reductions in energy use. People cannot simply turn up their air conditioner thermostats to 72 degrees from 70, or replace 75 watt light bulbs with 60 watt bulbs. Instead, the proposed Kyoto accord will require drastic reductions in energy use in every aspect of people’s every day lives.

Some approaches being discussed to reduce emissions are a carbon tax on fossil fuel emissions (from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas) and the currently favored "cap and trade" approach, that is, a form of energy rationing to restrict emissions to, say, 1990 levels or below, and the issuing of tradable emission permits.

The Clinton Administration, not surprisingly, has backed away from energy taxes: their impacts are too obvious and their costs too visible to the American public. There is clearly no desire among Clinton Administration officials to relive the experience of trying to get an energy tax through Congress as was attempted in 1993. As an internal 1994 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) memo on global warming policy options concluded: "Energy taxes are likely to be unpopular and would require significant political capital to legislate; they might initiate some backlash against climate change and other environmental actions."

The same document, though, gave a nod to "market-oriented" alternatives with this assessment: "A cap would likely not be as unpopular as a tax, since people are generally less familiar with the concept." This statement, of course, also shows an all-too-common cynicism toward the American public — if people don’t know what’s happening, they can’t mobilize against it (Exhibits 2 and 3 list some proposals by the EPA and Department of Transportation to cut emissions).

Exhibit 1: Ways Americans Directly Use Energy in a Typical Day

Activity	System/appliance/product	Typical Energy Source
o Waking up	Clock/clock radio	Electricity
o Turning lights on	Light fixtures	Electricity
o Showering or bathing	Hot water heater	Gas or electricity
o Shaving; drying hair	Electric shaver; hair dryer	Electricity
o Preparing coffee	Coffee maker	Electricity
o Preparing hot breakfast	Stove, toaster, microwave	Gas; electricity
o Doing dishes	Hot water heater	Gas or electricity
o Taking kids to day care
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