Evaluating DOGE halfway through Trump’s second term

One week after his victory in the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump announced that he would create the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to “dismantle Government Bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure Federal Agencies[.]” On February 26, 2025, he signed Executive Order 14222, which directed DOGE officials to “terminate or modify … covered contracts and grants to reduce overall Federal spending or reallocate spending to promote efficiency” and conduct reviews of “each agency’s contracting policies, procedures, and personnel.”

Early expectations that DOGE would quickly shrink agency budgets and reduce the size and scope of the federal government have not fully aligned with results. As President Trump’s second term approaches its midpoint, data from two agencies shows that even with fewer full-time-equivalent positions (FTEs), budget reductions have been slower and less substantial than anticipated. DOGE may be only one factor influencing agency spending, and budgetary reform likely depends on agency leadership, Congress, and the president’s broader goals for efficiency.

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) illustrates this point. The FTC’s budget increased from $351 million to $430 million under President Biden’s tenure — a 22 percent increase across four years. Despite President Trump’s DOGE initiatives, however, the FTC’s budget only decreased by $4.3 million, or 1 percent, in FY 2025 and remains much higher than during his first term when it averaged about $310 million. In the months since, projections show only a modest budget reduction despite the nearly 15 percent decrease in the number of FTEs in FY 2025. If this result is due to budget cycle delays, the budget should continue to decline during the next few years.

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) tells a similar story. During President Biden’s term, the FCC’s budget increased by about 10 percent, from $480 million before he assumed office to $526 million when he left office. Unlike the FTC’s budget, though, the FCC’s budget continued to increase in the first half of President Trump’s second term. Only in the projections for FY 2027 does the budget begin to decrease, yet it will remain above the levels seen in FY 2021-2024. Perhaps most surprisingly, this delay in reduced spending accompanied a 26 percent decrease in the number of FTEs during President Trump’s second term. Fewer employees and higher spending at the FCC is not the path toward Trump’s goal to “dismantle Government Bureaucracy.”

Ultimately, evaluating DOGE solely by immediate budget or staffing reductions may overlook the complexities of federal spending. This does not necessarily mean that DOGE was ineffective, but lasting reductions in the size and cost of the regulatory state may require more than a temporary initiative. Instead, agency heads (who set agendas), Congress (which controls appropriations), and committees (which shape spending decisions) must coordinate.

DOGE may have been able to identify inefficiencies and create pressure for reform, but sustainable change demands broader institutional support and a willingness among executive agencies and Congress to codify fiscal responsibility for the long term.