Greek Tragedy Nears a Dramatic End
With the prospects for a Greek pro-austerity coalition fading rapidly, here is a round-up of the most useful stories on the Greek tragedy:
- The BBC’s business editor, Robert Peston, asks if the Euro could survive a Greek exit. His comments on German reactions are key.
- A group of economists and financiers comment on what a Greek exit would mean. The consensus: economic disaster for Greece, but only a couple note that the Greek position right now isn’t exactly bread and roses.
- A useful note from JP Morgan that suggests that immediate losses from a Greek Euro exit could be around $400 billion.
- The suggestion that Greece could run out of money as early as tomorrow.
- In a leading indicator of capital flight, Greeks, Italians. and Spaniards have flooded into the London real estate market.
- Trading desks in London have started adding a shadow Drachma to their computer systems (and lots more in that excellent rolling blog from The Guardian).
- Drafts from Berlin suggest that Germany wants a Europe-wide bailout fund to stabilize the European economy after a Greek exit (now being elided to “Grexit” in City of London shorthand). This would mean non-Eurozone members helping pay for the costs of the Euro.
- Paul Krugman finally catches up to what the rest of us have been saying for some time.
- A straw that some are clutching at is that Greeks remain committed to the Euro, ignoring the role that it has played in their crisis.
- AEI’s James Pethokoukis points out the obvious — that a Euro recession could have significant implications for the presidential election.
For the record, here’s my two American Spectator articles on Greece, one from November last year. I wish I’d been more wrong.