Did Donald Trump Lose China Trade War? 10 Experts Weigh In

Newsweek quoted CEI’s expert on the trade war

Ryan Young, Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI)

Young, a senior economist with the CEI, told Newsweek that the agreed-to reductions in both countries’ tariffs were far higher than he had anticipated, given the president’s earlier endorsement of an 80-percent tariff on Chinese imports.

“Less reassuring is that this is a 90-day pause, and not a permanent reduction,” he added.

“U.S. consumers and businesses benefit most, but it’s more a question of reduced harm than of benefits,” Young said. “Even a 30-percent tariff is still higher than it was before Trump took office. Less damage is better than more, but the American and Chinese people are both worse off than they were just a few months ago.”

He told Newsweek that both countries’ leaders had come out on top after Geneva, given the political and economic ramifications of a drawn-out standoff.

“Trump can’t risk a recession for political reasons, while China’s debt and demographic problems give it less cushion against economic downturns than countries with freer economies,” he said. “They found a way for both sides to avoid having to admit they made mistakes.”

While he said that Trump has created the conditions for claiming victory—raising tariffs then receiving praise for lowering them—”in the long run, the American economy loses, which could have consequences for the rest of Trump’s agenda.”

“All the tariff drama of the last month has not gotten Trump much besides a possible recession, which could cost Trump’s party its congressional majority.”

Read more at Newsweek