The future of betting markets

 Business Insider  cited CEI’s expert on the future of election betting markets

Prediction markets are “going to attract people who want to influence
public perception,” Broughel says.
The betting markets are “not a silver bullet,” James Broughel, a senior fellow at the
Competitive Enterprise Institute, says. “They have their own imperfections, just
like all of the other metrics do.” While the markets nailed that outcome, they didn’t
forecast the popular vote as precisely: On Polymarket at 7 p.m. on Tuesday, Trump
had just a 28% chance of winning. Kalshi wagers on the popular vote didn’t favor
Trump until 11 p.m. The platforms have raised concerns about whether individuals
with fat pockets can sway politics. The French trader who pumped more than $30
million into Polymarket is thought to have made $85 million when Trump won. But
this wasn’t an indication of support: The man, who is known only as Théo, told The
Wall Street Journal that he had “absolutely no political agenda” but believed Trump
would win.

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