License to misfire: The new CDL rule backfires on safety and prices

The American economy runs on trucks. From groceries to medical supplies to construction materials, nearly everything travels by road at some point. In the absence of automated platooning, keeping this system moving requires not just infrastructure and logistics, but also a steady supply of qualified drivers able to navigate a complex web of federal and state regulations.

These rules determine who can legally operate a commercial vehicle, covering licensing standards, training, and workforce eligibility. Even small regulatory changes can ripple across safety and driver availability, creating supply chain problems and harming consumers. A recently implemented federal rule by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) alters how non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) are issued and renewed.

These licenses allow certain noncitizens without permanent US residency to work legally as truck drivers. The new rule narrows eligibility by limiting new issuances and complicating renewals. This will have unintended consequences for both the size of the workforce and the broader structure of the trucking industry.

Lights, camera, regulation: Safety theater at FMCSA

The Department of Transportation (DOT) cites a “recent series of horrific, fatal crashes caused by non-domiciled drivers” as its rationale. Non-domiciled drivers are presented as a “clear and present danger.” There is one issue with that rationale: FMCSA, which is part of the DOT, acknowledged that there is insufficient evidence of the potential safety benefits of cutting back the numbers of non-domiciled truck drivers.

The DOT claims it is “making American roads safe again,” but this final rule will likely reduce road safety. It is estimated to affect about 194,000 truck drivers, or 5 percent of the 3.8 million active CDL holders. Industry estimates suggest that there could be concentrated effects in states such as California, Arizona, and Texas where the workforce could be slashed by 15 to 25 percent.

While these drivers will not all leave the industry at once, the gradual reduction in the workforce will resonate throughout the trucking industry, with implications for driver availability, workloads, and operational pressures.

Reducing the number of non-domiciled CDL holders will inevitably increase reliance on less experienced drivers. Research shows that professional truck drivers with fewer than three years of experience are more likely to engage in high-risk behaviors and report near misses, whereas drivers with a decade or more of experience have about 28 percent lower crash involvement.

Current drivers are likely to face higher workloads, longer shifts, and tighter schedules in the short term as companies recruit new drivers and potentially for the medium term if the pool of eligible drivers remains limited. Evidence demonstrates that fatigue impairs decision-making and reaction time, which increases the likelihood of accidents.

From wheels to wallets: Counting the cost

The issue with this final rule goes beyond road safety; it comes at a cost to the economy and everyday Americans. Reducing the truck driver workforce by about 5 percent of CDL holders will tighten freight capacity, which is significant given that 65 percent of US freight moves by truck.

Driver shortages have been shown to slow delivery times and create less efficient freight operations. A 2025 industry survey found that a majority of freight companies reported driver availability and on-time delivery as top pressures. Many industries that use “just-in-time” supply methods rely on prompt deliveries, so delays disrupt their operations. Removing nearly 200,000 qualified drivers from the workforce would magnify these pressures while reducing shipping efficiency and making delays more common.

Empirical research shows that higher freight and shipping costs do not stay confined to carriers. A study by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development found that container shipping cost increases feed into import and consumer price inflation.

Additionally, freight rate shocks are associated with higher producer and consumer prices in advanced economies. This is because a spike in shipping costs incentivizes firms to pass the cost increases onto the customer to maintain profitability. In other words, this rule will increase the cost of your grocery bill, your furniture, and everything in between.

Driving towards common sense, not red tape

This final rule does not merely fail to deliver on safety; it actively undermines it. Cutting roughly 200,000 experienced drivers will force companies to rely on novices, increase crash risk, and overwork remaining drivers to the point of adding fatigue-related dangers.

At the same time, fewer drivers mean tighter capacity, higher freight rates, and slower deliveries. Those higher costs ripple through the economy and land squarely on consumers.

That is the hidden cost of this regulation: shifting risk and expense onto the public while claiming to protect it. The government gets to claim a safety win while drivers face more dangerous conditions and families quietly pay the price in higher bills and fewer reliable goods. In trying to solve one purported problem, this rule creates several more real ones.