October adds 12,000 jobs to economy, far fewer than usual: CEI analysis

According to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics report, only 12,000 jobs were added to the economy in October, largely due to job losses from recent hurricanes. While the labor market remains in good shape overall, new revisions to previous jobs reports are likely to indicate more corrections in the near future. 

CEI Senior Economist Ryan Young:

“Yet another conspiracy theory goes down in flames. For months, many Republican partisans have been claiming that the Bureau of Labor Statistics manipulates its numbers to favor Democrats. 

“They will have a difficult time explaining why BLS’s most politically sensitive jobs estimate, released four days before the election, makes the Biden-Harris administration look bad.

“Typical monthly labor force growth is in the 100,000-200,000 range. October’s was 12,000, or about a tenth of the normal range’s lower bound. 

“Not only that, but BLS’s regularly scheduled revisions for previous months went downward, against what Harris and Biden would prefer. As economists have said all along, BLS could stand to improve its methodology, but it is not in the tank for either party.

“The labor market overall remains in good shape. Any unemployment rate under 5 percent is considered roughly full employment; it held steady at 4.1 percent. The reason for the sharp slowdown in jobs growth was driven by Hurricanes Helene and Milton and the recent dockworker strike, and not by structural problems in the economy. That bodes well for a bounce back to normal jobs growth next month.”

CEI Research Fellow Sean Higgins:

“The Labor Department’s Friday report attributes the mere 12,000 jobs created in October to Hurricanes Helene and Milton but also to strike activity that resulted in 44,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. The losses would have been vastly higher if the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) had not suspended their October walkout from east coast and Gulf of Mexico ports, freezing the nation’s supply chain, after just a few days. It’s a reminder of how much power unions still have over the broader economy and how much damage they can do when unrestrained.

“The caveat here is that the Labor Department has yet again issued substantial revisions to the prior months’ numbers, lowering August and September’s totals by a combined 112,000. The department is clearly struggling to keep track of a rapidly changing economy. Given the pattern of the last few months, it is highly likely that the Labor Department will be revising this month’s numbers in the near future. Therefore they should be taken with a grain of salt.”