March adds 228,000 jobs ahead of a rocky economic road: CEI analysis

The job numbers report for March show 228,000 jobs were added to the economy, with the unemployment rate staying steady at 4.2 percent. While the report is good news, the numbers are yet reflective of total federal job losses and President Trump’s tariffs.

CEI Senior Economist Ryan Young:

“It is a relief to see some good economic news. The caveat is that none of President Trump’s major tariffs took effect in March. Although trade policy does not affect labor force size in the long run, it sure can in the short run, and upcoming jobs report will likely reflect that.

“While some companies like Nissan are adding shifts right now, others like Stellantis and Ford are already laying off workers. Retaliatory tariffs will likely cost jobs in still-unknown industries in the coming months. Even the current uncertainty about tariff policy can chill hiring.

“As tariffs raise prices in the coming weeks, people will be able to afford fewer goods, which will cost jobs even in sectors untouched by tariffs as their sales take a hit.

“March’s employment numbers are good news, and I’ll take it. But it could be one last breath before a deep dive underwater.”

CEI Research Fellow Sean Higgins:

“The Labor Department reported Friday that a mere 4,000 jobs were lost in the federal government in March. That’s because the department counts federal workers on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay as still employed. The losses that were expected to decimate jobs numbers have yet to show up in the official data.

“To date, the total reported job losses in the federal government since Trump took office amount to only 15,000. The federal workforce encompasses an estimated 3 million people, excluding active-duty military.

“The number of federal job losses will surely shift as the current administration continues its efforts, legal challenges to the dismissals work their way through the courts and the Labor Department further analyzes the data.

“The Labor Department’s report underscores the enormous challenge the current administration faces in trying to shrink the federal workforce. Even with the unprecedented and legally audacious tactics that they have used, they have yet to make a dent.”